The Global Human Capital Journal

Process Excellence Can Inject New Vitality into Ailing Manufacturers

Picture this: you are the CEO of a venerable manufacturer that has been besieged by price pressure, increased imports and high capital costs. Revenue has been barely edging up, and profits have been negative three of the last five years. You have had to lay off a significant portion of manufacturing personnel, many of whom had been with you more than a generation. Your ship is still taking on water despite best efforts, and you do not know where to turn.

This was precisely the situation of several U.S. firms that took the unusual route of selling themselves to Indian firms that turned the companies around very quickly by applying sophisticated process and management expertise. In many cases, local employment increased because the companies became much more competitive. Here are two examples:

Editor's Choice of the Global Human Capital Journal

As I reflect on 2007 and create strategy for 2008, several macro-trends come into sharp relief, and I believe that some of them might be helpful to you as you conduct your own planning. As always, I focus on emerging phenomena because they are areas in which disruption and discontinuous change are acting on markets, thereby elevating threats and opportunities. Helping leaders to create strategy to manage the risk of unusual market developments is the focus of my consulting practice.

In 2007 it became clear to me that we were entering a profound social transformation that would produce an unimaginable degree of change. Unlike the technology-precipitated change that I've been helping people with since the 1990s, technology is shifting to the background now, and pervasive social change is taking the stage. Look for disruption in all areas affected by how people connect, communicate, purchase and collaborate: business, politics, community and leisure. Moreover, these changes are completely global with all the variations that engenders.

I can't tell you how many acts this opera has, but 2007's themes can provide you enough clarity, at a minimum, to notice that the water is getting warmer. I have also included among the links some prescriptive market advisories I wrote this year. They give explicit advice and action steps to maneuver your organization so that you can become stronger as these changes unfold.

Thank you for your readership and support, and best regards as the curtain rises on the first act!

"Emerging" Market Companies Rapidly Becoming Global Players—New Owners for Jaguar and Land Rover

Emerging countries have long been regarded by globalizers as targets for exploitation, but 21st century market forces are turning legacy thinking on its head, which produces disruption and its sibling, opportunity.

The conventional thinking goes that emerging countries like Brazil, Russia, India and China (BRIC) have talented knowledge/human capital resources that can be tapped in outsourcing and offshoring arrangements. Moreover, these workers' employment in high value knowledge jobs creates a new consumer class among large populations. Emerging countries' rapidly growing consumer markets stand in sharp contrast to developed countries', which are flat or shrinking. China and India have been relaxing restrictions on foreign ownership, which has increased FDI, especially in China, enabling foreign companies to invest in and buy BRIC companies.

However, the big story in 2007 was the opposite:

Geeky Session Explains How a Potent Mix of "People Like Me" Navigation and Digital Leverage Can Drive Sales and Profits

The Secret to Emerging Markets?

The Global Human Capital Journal's coverage of the Forrester Consumer Forum 2007 continues with this session on social tagging. Before your eyes glaze over, bear with me and learn how this simple, revolutionary social technology can help your customers to help your business. Forrester's Sarah Rotman Epps moderated a discussion with Brian Rosenblat, Online Retail Industry Lead, Endeca Technologies and Jay Shaffer, Vice President Marketing, PowerReviews, who represented companies that offer social tagging solutions, and they all shared numerous examples.

This was one of the most "actionable opportunity" sessions of the conference: tagging is a relatively unknown, simple, yet transformational Web 2.0 phenomenon that will gain traction in 2008 and explode in 2009. If you aren't doing it, you will be at a significant disadvantage to your competitors who do.

The Global Human Capital Journal published the overall conference wrap as well as in-depth coverage of several sessions. Access all through the link to the conference logo (right).

Examining the Environmental Fallout of the Chinese Economic Supernova—Sibling Rivalry Rears Its Ugly Head

In 2007, nary an RSS feed or the page of a newspaper (for those still inclined ,^) does not mention China's exploding impact on the global stage: China is truly an economic supernova, and it is breaking almost any record for development that is laid before it. However, China's breakneck development is accompanied by grave environmental fallout: for example, as the host of the Beijing 2008 Olympic Games, the city is designing extreme measures to ensure that the air is clean enough for the athletes to breathe. The chief culprit is coal, a key source for China's insatiable need for electric power, and a resource that the country has in abundance. For key facts on China, I suggest The Economist's Country Briefing or Global Human Capital's China category (in depth) or China tag (mentions).

The Economist and WBEZ 91.5 FM presented an Oxford-style debate on the effect that China’s rise would have on the environment at Millennium Park's Harris Theater on 24 October 2007. National Public Radio’s Worldview host, Jerome McDonnell, moderated the session in which two debate teams argued their cases in front of the audience, which then voted on the debate winner. As a baseline, McDonnell polled the several hundred member audience prior to the debate, and we were evenly split and "too close to call."

U.S. at Turning Point with Global Economy in the Balance—A Lack of Courage?

James W. Owens, Chairman & Chief Executive Officer of Caterpillar Inc., beseeched U.S. business and government leaders to find the courage to save free trade. The speaker at the Executives' Club of Chicago's Global Leaders Series, Owens addressed a packed house at the Hilton Chicago on 16 October 2007. His speech was immediately followed by the Club's Technology Conference at which CIOs advised their peers on the emerging role of the CIO in the "networked economy 2.0."

A Ph.D. economist with extensive global management experience, Owens made a very convincing argument that the U.S. and the global economy are at a turning point. It is time for the U.S. to lead by example to assure the continuance of the free trade juggernaut that has produced so much wealth in the world. If it fails, the world stands before the prospect of sharply curtailed trade.

Following a summary of his remarks, I will offer conclusions and analysis of related market developments. Although he limited his remarks to business leadership, I will also argue that the U.S.'s lack of resolve and leadership is multidimensional, notably with respect to the environment. Moreover, economic and social forces are going to confront the definition of the sovereignty of the nation state due to the collective destiny of all nations due to trade and the environment. In other words, Owens' remarks may be far more applicable than he suggested.

2007 Pockets of Opportunity Revealed—Plus Political Handicapping

The Executives' Club of Chicago assembled an all-star panel to give Midwest business leaders their guidance for various aspects of the U.S. economy in 2007. Diane Swonk, Chief Economist of Mesirow Financial, Alan Murray, Assistant Managing Editor of The Wall Street Journal and Robert "Bob" Froehlich, Chairman of the Investment Strategy Committee, Deutsche Asset Management broke out their respective crystal balls for 2007, and the audience was not disappointed for lack of insight or wit. The session was scintillatingly moderated by Terry Savage, Financial Columnist of the Chicago Sun-Times.

The consensus was that the U.S. economy would have a relatively benign year in 2007. All panelists predicted a higher Dow, and their predictions concurred with Wall Street's most accurate ,^) indicator, the Super Bowl Predictor. Little of import will happen on the political front, the U.S. economy will grow at a slower pace, and investment returns will be generally highest outside the U.S. Elsewhere, consumer empowerment reared its head in the executive pay issue, Apple will remain an enigma for investors who don't understand customer experience, and the U.S. will have to get over itself in order to realize its potential in the Knowledge Economy.

Political Insight into the Global Knowledge Market

The Strategic Management Association, the Harvard Business School and the CDMA sponsored the 2007 China Outlook, which was given by Lyric Hughes-Hale, Founder China Online in Chicago 9 January 2007. Her presentation was preceded by David Hale's 2007 Economic Forecast. As a long-tim