Globalization: Coming soon to a theatre near you
The adoption of Web 2.0 and social networking accelerated significantly in 2009, and it shows no sign of stopping. Global digital word of mouth is disrupting growing swaths of business models, and CEOs want to understand its opportunities and threats. Although the Web is resplendent with prognostications from social media gurus, the voices of enterprise practitioners are too scarcely heard.
Therefore, the Global Human Capital Journal is pleased to present perspectives from highly experienced executives who share their thoughts on how Web 2.0 is changing their businesses and mindsets. Moreover, they share its limitations and problems. Keep in mind that each contributor wrote independently, and I have made no attempt to unify the view, although I will offer my analysis and conclusions as well as the intriguing backstory below. Here is a sampling of the group's eclectic insights:
Continue reading 17 Enterprise Visionaries Release 2010 Predictions for Social Networks, Web 2.0
"We are flying into some turbulence, so please return to your seats and keep your seatbelts fastened while we try to find more favorable winds."
As chronicled in the just-published Decade in Review 2000-2009, the twenty-first century is proving to be volatile and disruptive in every way, and 2010 will continue the trend. Three disruptive forces are converging: the relative value of the Industrial Economy continues to fall as overproduction reigns. Globalization is replete with extras that people at the head table didn't order. Most imperceptibly yet poignantly, the emerging Knowledge Economy is digitizing communications and changing the economics of knowledge and relationships. Web 2.0 and social networks drive down the cost of communication, which accelerates volatility because when people talk, ideas change and lead to action, and digital conversations happens faster and less expensively. Social networks are rapidly making "the Web" human, thereby attracting an ever-larger portion of all human communications online. In 2009, adoption reached critical mass, ramping strongly among consumers, so many enterprises are following. The Web 1.0 adoption rhythm is very instructive.
Pervasive Web 2.0 also means reexamination or disruption of most areas of life, culture, society, government and business because social networks alter how many and what kind of relationships people have. The impact is similar to Ford's production line, except it is more powerful: it scales relationships. Large organizations will remain in a profound state of turmoil because they were not built with withstand the volatility these forces are unleashing. Many Fortune 500 companies will be confronted with their survival, and some will not make it. Entire industries will consolidate over the next several years (automotive, airlines, banking, hotels, food, consumer goods...). Web communications mean we consume novelty far more quickly, which curtails product life cycles and leads to ultra-fast commoditization. Companies will require unprecedented innovation to even stay in place. New entrants around the world compete for customers and leverage their lower costs and better innovation processes. And Web 2.0 is still in the early stages of adoption.
This dynamism elevates opportunity and threat for executives and their organizations, so our focus here is to lay out probable milestones for 2010 to assist executives in business strategy and career planning for 2010 and beyond. First, I will lay out predictions, on which I'll build for my 2010 recommendations. By the way, this follows Year in Review—2009/Social Networking Gains Legs on Heavy Seas and Decade in Review 2000-2009/The Rise of Web 2.0, the New Pervasive Human Space.
We need to upgrade the turntable again! When I emerged from undergrad in the eighties, the economy was rotating at 16rpm, which we doubled in the nineties with Web 1.0 to 33rpm. The 2000s had us grooving at 78rpm. Even though one part of me says that this metaphor is poorly chosen because it's retro, it also reflects another key trend: atomization and mashing up.
The Web is a communications revolution that speeds the consumption of novelty and its economic value, so it is destroying the Industrial Economy's main value mechanism: value via efficiency and long product life cycles. During the 21st century's first decade, the overriding trend is that society and markets in which executives have interest saw extensive disruption and change. That meant volatility. As I'll discuss, this volatility will continue to accelerate because the transaction costs of communication are plummeting, which drives rapid iteration and change in all areas of human society. At the risk of sounding subjective, I believe this will probably be regarded as one of the most disruptive eras in history.
Continue reading Decade in Review 2000-2009/The Rise of Web 2.0, the New Pervasive Human Space
Editor's Choice of the Global Human Capital Journal—Behind the Curtain—The Best Strategy, Tactics, Case Studies and Insights of 2009
2009 may have been many things, but boring was not among them! To do it justice, I feel like I have to dock the ship, which has been sailing on turbulent seas, frothed with spellbinding sunrises, sharks, dead winds and tempests. Volatility and surprise have certainly been the watchwords among executives I've collaborated with this year, and all indications are that we should look for the same in 2010. However, as dramatic as the environment is, it is only the backdrop for the real story: Enterprise social networking has found its legs and is ramping strongly. Although still tentative, social network investments are becoming pervasive due to the exploding adoption among individuals—and the latter's impact on markets and firms. As I have been writing since 2005, digital social networking represents unprecedented disruption, opportunity and risk, and I saw many of my predictions play out in 2009.
The 2009 Year in Review gives you the chance to come up to speed rapidly or fill in the holes in your understanding. My perspective comes from intense collaboration with exceptional pioneers of enterprise-focused social networking. Many of the articles come from client work and real situations I encountered this year. I have reviewed 2009's articles, selected the best and wrapped them in a review and analysis to help you realize where we have been, so you can better plan where you want to go in 2010.
So, throw a log on the fire, pour yourself a nice glass, and let's dive in.
Digital social networks give their members front row seats in many aspects of human dramas, but few companies or individuals have the understanding of human behavior to appreciate fully what they are seeing. Many executives of commercial and government enterprises perceive "social" behavior as frivolous and discourage employees' activity in social networks. This exceptional book shows that the Industrial Economy idea of the separation of "work" and "social" is dangerously out of place in the Knowledge Economy, in which collaboration among people produces the lion's share of business value. To succeed in the Knowledge Economy, leaders need to appreciate the importance of social activity in collaboration and productivity, and how digital social networks can increase productivity. In this review, I will try to do the book justice, but I will also attempt to show how its ideas apply to digital social networks, collaboration and productivity.
To use a technical metaphor, Windows has its DOS, and Mac OS X has its UNIX. In fact, Windows and Mac OS X are just interfaces that come between the core engine (DOS and UNIX) of the computer and the user, so s/he doesn't have to have technical knowledge to run the machine. However, at critical moments, it can be very advantageous to understand certain aspects of the core operating systems. Since understanding human behavior is critical to success in virtually all human endeavors, it might be useful to understand what I'll term as "Human OS." This enthralling book gets way under the covers on "social" network behavior and puts it all into perspective. As such, readers come to appreciate how and why people behave the way they do.
Wednesday, the Wall Street Journal published What Facebook Can't Give You, which chronicles the growth of the "Wednesday 10," a professional networking group started in 1957 in Manhattan by William Safire. Established when members were in their 20s, the Wednesday 10 saw many of its members go on to become leading broadcasting executives, investment bankers and real estate moguls, and the point of the headlines is that "old fashioned" offline face to face networking is superior to online social networking.
This is another example of uninformed "criticism" of online social networks because it takes a mutually exclusive attitude toward offline and online social networking, a growing head-in-the-sand response to the disruption that the latter presents. Read on for a short review and discussion of how successful executives in the 21st century will use all modes of social networking to increase competitiveness through authentic relationships.
President Bill Clinton addressed 2,500 alumni of the Indian Institutes of Technology in Chicago on Saturday at PanIIT 2009 with the message: You can make an impact as an individual, and all of us have to take responsibility for creating a more equitable, stable world. Speaking at the three-day global confab, Clinton pointed out that interdependence had positive and negative consequences because it brought people together in unprecedented ways. Through actual and media contact, people start seeing how everyone else lives around the world, and startling differences are difficult to understand and accept. Overshadowing this are a slew of global challenges like disease and climate change, problems that demand unprecedented collaboration. I will both summarize his remarks and provide my analysis and conclusions.
As the Web 2.0 Adoption Curve, 2009-2015 predicts, there will be a significant backlash against social networks during 2009-2010 because the market's perceived value of social networks is much higher than its skill with the tools, and this will result in inflated expectations and disappointments. Most decision makers are distracted by social networks' novelty and features, and they overlook the obvious, that social networks offer a quantum leap in productivity for developing and managing relationships.
The MSM (mainstream media) have at best an ambivalent relationship with social networks because the latter weaken their monopoly on influence and mass communications. Consequently, they face a double barrier in understanding social networks' value proposition: 1) like the rest of the market, they require time to understand how they can best use social networks in meaningful ways and 2) since they perceive social networks as challengers, they are too ready to be dismissive. Executives will be well served to keep this in mind lest they be influenced into rejecting social networks' promise too hastily.
To illustrate the point, I will comment on Facebook Exodus from the New York Times as an example of self-indulgent journalism that will add to the backlash. Expect a wave of such press in the coming months.
Digital social networks are transforming every field of human endeavor, from society and romance to politics and business. This is happening because they change the economics of how people discover, develop and maintain relationships. Although some will argue this point, we humans share with other animals the propensity to take more of something desirable when given the chance, and social networks enable us to have more relationships.
However, as I predicted in the Web 2.0 Adoption Curve, 2009-2015, there will be a significant backlash against social networks during 2009-2010 because the market's perceived value of social networks is much higher than its skill with the tools. This will result in inflated expectations and ensuing disappointments. Most executives are distracted by social networks' strangeness and features, and they miss the obvious, that social networks offer a quantum leap in productivity for developing and managing relationships. Much of the market will reject social networks as a fad and will sit on the sidelines during the Failure & Disappointment part of the adoption curve. However, people and companies that understand the real proposition will develop a rare competitive advantage while competitors are snoozing.
The 20th century created and democratized unprecedented wealth for humankind in many parts of the world, but soon after the 21st century dawned that party ran out of booze (credit), and the global economy is still seeking a new equilibrium. Businesses and individuals are beginning to suspect or realize that they find themselves in a fundamentally different environment. Here I will briefly outline two levels of adversity executives are facing, one of which is serving as a smokescreen for the other. Then I will share some recommendations for managing through this period. By understanding some of the causes involved in these economic effects, you will be able to guide your company and career most appropriately.
Copyright © 2010 The Global Human Capital Journal - All Rights ReservedPowered by WordPress · Atahualpa Theme by BytesForAll